For my first blog, I’m going to jump straight into the subject of Future Trends. To narrow this broad subject down to fit the anticipated attention span of my readers, I shall focus on six areas which I believe will have the greatest impact on the supply chain over the next 10 years. 

Looking forward can never be an exact science, particularly in a digital age where progress is exponential and change occurs over days and weeks rather than years and decades. The futurologist’s rulebook has been torn up, shall we say. 

In the late 1950s and early 60s, the so-called golden age of futurism, we envisaged jetpack mailmen, flying carpet cars, wristwatch TVs, electronic home libraries and robotic warehouses. 

Come 2017, how close are we to achieving these pipedreams? 

The jetpack postman was envisaged as a cap-wearing satchel-bearing mailman zooming in to land at the front doorstep of a grateful American mom. Today, that vision manifests itself today in the shape of a drone, technology that is just waiting for legislation to catch up with it before it can really take off. 

Flying carpet cars are not too dissimilar to autonomous cars, although operating at street level rather than in the cloud – an expression which was taken more literally back in the 1950s. Of course, the logistics industry is keeping a close eye on this technology, and trials of autonomous trucks have already taken place. 

Wristwatch TVs, although not yet beaming images from the moon, are here, thanks to incredible advances in the consumer gadget world. Casio had one commercially available – albeit hellishly expensive – in the early ‘80s. It’s fair to say that this technology hasn’t really caught the imagination, not least because smartphones now more than fulfil the envisaged purposefulness of these devices. My personal opinion is that there’s precious little on TV these days worth carrying around on the end of your arm. 

Electronic home libraries – well, I don’t know where to find out more about that. If only there was some kind of global network of information whereby we could simply think of a question and the answer is presented instantly. I think I’ll have to Google it(!) The manner of the arrival of this technology is not exactly as originally envisaged in the 1950s with the projection of microfilm books onto walls and ceilings.

Finally, what about robotic warehouses? Post-Brexit, the manufacturers and suppliers of automated materials handling systems are reporting stronger than ever order books in the UK as warehouse owners and operators embrace robotics and automation to help mitigate against the possibility of the supply of relatively low-cost warehouse labour from eastern Europe drying up. Amazon, for example, which took more than a quarter of all available UK warehouse space in 2016, doubled the number of Kiva robots it has in its warehouses in just a year. 

So, what re those six disruptive factors that I believe will have the greatest impact on the supply chain over the next 10 years? 

Disruptive factor #1 - The Internet of Things 

Firstly, a short definition: Internet of Things is the interconnection via the Internet of computing devices embedded in everyday objects, enabling them to send and receive data. 

Traditionally, the logistics and transport sector tends to lag behind other sectors in technological innovation, but predictive analytics is one area where it is leading the way. Accuracy of prediction only comes when there’s massive volumes of data, which is where logistics can really deliver.

Internet of Things is driving unprecedented visibility into operations, influencing logistics decision-making on how goods are produced, stored, monitored, routed, transported, and delivered to customers.

Inside today’s modern warehouse, Internet of Things allows companies to track and manage inventory by putting mobile devices in the hands of workers, enabling them to collect, manage, and view data that is then shared with the organisation.

Improved visibility throughout the supply chain allows companies to manage their inventory much more efficiently, and in the future will eliminate the need to conduct physical inventory counts.

Internet of Things presents a huge opportunity to optimise supply chains and to reduce the cost of product transportation.

Today, each Amazon order takes up on average one minute of human time to fulfil. Developments in Internet of Things appear to be leading towards the Eldorado of virtually complete hands-free fulfilment from the point of origin – be it a factory or field - right to the door of consumers, as companies increasingly track their customers' needs. The possible result is that one day, certain products will not have retail inventory as a buffer between production and consumption. This will have massive implications on the shape, size and location – or in some cases even the existence – of warehousing in the future.

Disruptive factor #2 - 3D printing

3D printing, originally developed as a method of producing prototypes, is the action or process of making a physical object from a three-dimensional digital model, typically by laying down many thin layers of a material in succession.

This can be achieved either by scanning and then duplicating an existing physical item, or by creating a template drawing and feeding its vectors into a 3D printer.

My son was tremendously fortunate to have access to a 3D printer whilst at school, and it soon became second nature to him to incorporate some 3D-printed items into any item he was designing. These were not usually load-bearing parts, and were always made up from a plastic medium.

But technological advances in this area have been enormous, and my son’s little plastic gears and spools seem delightfully quaint when compared to where 3D printing is today. The International Space Station, for example, has been 3D printing bits and bobs – including its own spare parts – since 2014. This is not science fiction, this is science fact.

The term 3D printing sells the technology short, as it is a far more capable technology than printing ever could be. Its correct name is additive manufacturing, and it enables individual items to be created on demand to a custom specification, rather than manufactured in large quantities and held in storage ready to be shipped.

Ten years from now, there shouldn’t be the need for enormous warehouses holding mass-produced products of all shapes and sizes. The technology that exists today can already free up significant warehouse space. Amazon has already applied for a patent to print goods in the back of its vans as it heads towards a customer’s location. The logical extension of this is a print-at-home model, thus doing away with the van and driver altogether, with a consumer merely downloading a blueprint and pressing the ‘print’ button. What’s less clear – and this may hold back this scenario – is the position on intellectual property rights.

PricewaterhouseCoopers believes that as much as 41% of the air cargo business and 37% of the ocean container business is at risk because of 3D printing.

The prospect of companies compressing the supply chain for certain products to a single production step is startling. In fact, I’ll go so far as to say it is revolutionary. We are still at the beginning of this amazing opportunity, but the technology is moving fast.

I envisage a warehouse which previously held multiple manufactured parts being the thing of the past. I envisage the warehouse of the future storing vast bins of plastics pellets of all colours. And not just plastic pellets, but powders, resins and other materials such as titanium, stainless steel, gypsum brass, silver, gold, glass, bone material and let’s not forget chocolate.

Disruptive factor #3 - Autonomous Vehicles

Driverless trucks have the potential to reduce labour costs and increase efficiency—after all, a driverless truck can travel straight to its destination without breaks for sleep and food. Self-driving vehicles are already used to transport items inside warehouses and other facilities, let’s not forget.

Self-driving vehicles have the potential to unlock new levels of safety, efficiency, and quality within the logistics sector. They could transform the supply chain by autonomously loading and transporting all shapes and sizes of products.

Even with the introduction and refinement of self-driving vehicle technology, how it will be implemented is still an open question. For instance, will governing authorities require driverless vehicles to have a driver on board in case something goes awry?

The technology is not the issue, it's the rules and regulations, government oversight, and general acceptance from users that will take a lot of time.

There is a massive ongoing commercial driver shortage – the FTA reckons the UK is 35,000 short currently, and with the average driver age around 48 years old, this is likely to intensify in the near future. This shortage is likely to play a major role in the viability of driverless vehicles, as it puts pressure on pricing and capacity. Driverless trucks could help alleviate the problem, but there are those who say the UK’s roads are simply not suited to the current wave of driverless vehicles, which are optimised for longer journeys on more straightforward routes.

No matter the obstacles, supply chain executives in the US in particular – where long distances are a given - see the move to self-driving vehicles as inevitable, a matter of when, not if.

Disruptive factor #4 - Collaborative Robots

Collaborative robotics appears to be having a breakthrough, as innovations continue to lead to the adoption of more agile, lightweight robots than the bulkier ones popular in manufacturing to date. Using artificial intelligence and sensors, these new robots can work side by side with people, and even learn through experience so they do not need to be programmed in the traditional way.

These robots also can recognise shapes, and perform automated tasks they could not handle previously, such as gluing, using a screwdriver, and selecting objects.

Deutsche Post DHL Group recently tested the implementation of robotics in logistics operations and found the results promising. In the future, companies could adopt robotics to work alongside humans at tasks such as unloading trucks, co-packing, picking orders, checking inventory, or shipping goods—all with a high degree of accuracy.

Disruptive factor #5 - The ‘Uberization’ of Delivery

I want to start this section by letting you know in no uncertain terms that I’m not a great fan of the word Uberization. Its made-upness grates on me, in such a way as does banoffee or Brangelina. However, I’m prepared to park this linguistic prejudice just for the moment to expand on this fascinating future trend.

New leaps forward in technology will not be the only way that technology influences the supply chain in the coming years. Just as influential will be the innovative ways that people use existing technology to develop new approaches. The challenge – and thereafter the opportunity – within the delivery sector is figuring out how to make single-shipment, same-day deliveries financially feasible.

The "Uberization" – also referred to as the Airbnbing, e-brokerage or, indeed, Uberification - of delivery is currently a particularly compelling space as innovative startups look for ways to provide same-day service at costs competitive with traditional carriers.

Roadie, an app-based service that networks deliveries to individual "civilian" drivers, fits that bill. Technological advances are producing new spaces for innovative logistics companies such as Roadie to operate in ways they had never considered before.

The Roadie app taps into an existing network - people post their delivery needs through the app, and drivers who sign up with Roadie are alerted when posted jobs fit their travel route.

It has established a network of more than 20,000 drivers in every US state in 12 months, but take-up by larger businesses is slow – it’s currently gaining traction among SMEs and start-ups keen to diversify their delivery options.

In much the same way that Uber, the largest taxi company in the world, doesn't own a car, and the largest room booker in the world, Airbnb, doesn't own any rooms, major players in the transportation and shipping field might not in the future be reliant on this vast network of planes, trucks, and complex sorting systems.

Disruptive factor #6 - Drones

In 2015, the US Federal Aviation Administration introduced Exemption 333, which lifted the prohibition on flying drones for commercial purposes. Since then, there has been massive growth in the drone industry, with multi-million dollar investments reflecting the technology’s promising future.

Although drones have been around for years – decades, even – we are still at the very beginning of an industry whose expansion has been choked by legislation. But that grip is starting to loosen and the industry is set to explode.

Once the preserve of the defence industry, drones are starting to be taken seriously by private industry too. A US company, Guided Systems Technologies, has designed a system that removes many of the primary obstacles to the widespread use of drones. It uses a large fuel-powered aircraft that carries smaller, short-range electric aircraft within range of their delivery addresses. The aircraft can carry large quantities of cargo or smaller drones to an area and dispense them with their deliveries, solving the inefficiencies of a single drone traveling a long distance to deliver one package.

The drones make deliveries to dedicated kiosks on the ground equipped with a user interface for people who want the package delivered. Packages can be shipped to and from the kiosk, with the drones landing and taking off from the top of the kiosk — providing a predictable, obstacle-free "runway."

The system has been designed with developing countries in mind, particularly those with remote villages difficult to reach because of unpaved roads that are occasionally impassable. The ongoing push to improve internet connectivity in these remote parts of the world will not spark economic growth without improved physical access.

We are all enthused by the prospect of a drone landing at our front door when, in reality, the true future of drone delivery could lie in helping impoverished people escape that poverty.

Currently, it is difficult to make the financial models for drone delivery work. Companies must invest large amounts of money to develop products and services that are affordable to customers, and once achieved, the margins are not likely to be great.

However, I believe it is only a matter of time before the commercial drone industry overcomes those issues and spreads its wings—not just in the United States but in the rest the rest of the world. Drones could be integral to everyday life as early as 2020.

Warehouse of the Future

So, those are the six future trends that I believe will shape the future of logistics. In 2027, will the supply chain rely on large physical structures positioned close to major conurbations and transport intersections, as is currently the case, with large fleets of vehicles thundering to all corners of the country delivering retailers’ promises in return for a tiny margin? I doubt that very much. The future is more likely to see smaller, collaborative units serving micro-communities inside cities, towns and villages. And let’s not forget all those raw materials for 3D printing.

Baby boomers such as me who grew up in the 1960s and 70s have seen their lives transformed by the growth of the internet and the effect it has on the way we lead our lives and do business today. It’s not inconceivable that companies will manage their supply chains so well that there won’t be a requirement for highly stocked warehouses at all.

It's very hard to put a timescale on the rate at which disruptive technologies will have a significant impact on the current status quo. The factors at play are innumerable, and include legislation, economy, consumer behaviour, and infrastructural considerations. The culture of the workers, managers and, of course, consumers will also play a massive part.

In this world of uncertainty, we cannot afford to stand still. The world is changing and those of you responsible for storing, handling and delivering materials from A to B will need to be ahead of the game if you are to avoid becoming a logistics dinosaur. Good luck with that, I say.

This is an edited version of a speech I gave to delegates at the Voiteq User Group event in June 2017. I accepted no fee, but instead asked Voiteq to make a donation to Transaid , which it kindly did.